国贸期货

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2月份新增信贷预测分歧大 广义信贷更需关注
来源:新浪网      发布时间:2016-03-01
 
郑加良/制表 吴比较/制图郑加良/制表 吴比较/制图

  2月份新增信贷预测分歧大 广义信贷更需关注

  ZHENGQUANSHIBAOJIZHE MACHUANMAO

  JI1YUEFENCHUANGJILUDEXINZENGXINDAISHUJUFABUHOU,“XINDAIGAOZENGNENGFOUCHIXU”YICHENGWEISHICHANGGAODUGUANZHUDEHUATI。

  ZHENGQUANSHIBAOJIZHEZUORITONGGUODIAOCHAWENJUANDEDAODEFANKUIJIEGUOXIANSHI,SHICHANGDUI2YUEFENXINZENGXINDAIDETONGBIBIANHUACUNZAIJIAODAFENQI。DUOSHUJIGOURENWEI,2YUEFENXINZENGXINDAIJIANGJIAO1YUEFENHUANBIJIANSHAO,DANJIAOQUNIANTONGQIBAOCHIWENDINGHUOXIAOFUZENGJIADAO1WANYI~1.5WANYI。BUGUOYEYOUYINXINGYEYANJIUTUANDUIDIAOYANYUJI,2YUEFENXINZENGYIBANXINGDAIKUANZAI0.8WANYI~1WANYI,TONGBIJIANGLVEYOUXIAHUA。JULEJIE,2015NIAN2YUEFENXINZENGXINDAIGUIMOWEI1.02WANYI。

  (17.620, 0.35, 2.03%)国贸期货银行业首席分析师王剑认为,“信贷怒放”可能不是突然现象,而是整体监管指标改变后,银行行为的相应转变;如果按照新的监管思路,市场应当更加关注广义信贷。此外,银行业研究团队表示,2月份信贷增速下降可为3月份留足额度,银行在宏观审慎评估体系(MPA)季度考核时不致捉襟见肘。

  2月份信贷新增预测分歧明显

  SHICHANGDUI2YUEFENXINZENGDAIKUANGUIMOCUNZAIJIAODAFENQI。

国贸期货   HUACHUANGZHENGQUANHONGGUANCELVEYANJIUZHUGUANNIUBOKUNBIAOSHI,DABUFENSHANGYEYINXINGDE2YUEFENXINZENGXINDAIZENGZHANGJIAO1YUEFENTONGQIJIBENCHIPINGSHENZHILVEYOUJIAKUAI。SHENZHIYOUBUFENYINXINGBIAOSHI,JIEZHIMUQIANDEXINZENGRENMINBIXINDAILIANGYICHAOGUO2015NIANQUANNIANXINZENGLIANGDEYIBAN。

国贸期货   DUIYUXINDAIFANGLIANGDEYUANYIN,NIUBOKUNRENWEI,CHULECHUANTONGNIANCHUDEJIJIEXING“ZAOTOUFANGZAOSHOUYI”YIJIJISHUSHANGCUNDAIBIQUXIAODEYINSUWAI,SHANGYEYINXINGNEIBUZAOYISHOUDAOZHENGCEMIANYAOQIUJINRONGZHICHIGONGYEWENZENGZHANGDIAOJIEGOUDEXIANGGUANWENJIAN。YINCI,QUNIANDEXINDAISHOUXIANZHIXINGYE“YAOSHENYIBIAN”LIERUKEXINDAIFANWEI。

  (11.430, 0.06, 0.53%)国贸期货宏观研究员李治平则认为,本轮信贷冲锋已基本结束,春节后增量锐减。“市场化的企业信贷应当没有额外增量,储备的存量政府项目也基本释放完毕。”

国贸期货   LIZHIPINGYUJI,2YUEFENXINZENGXINDAIGUIMOJIANGZAI1WANYI~1.5WANYI。TABIAOSHI,JIYUMPADIAOKONGYAOQIUJI1YUEFENSHUJU,2YUEFENXINZENGXINDAIJIAO1YUEFENXIAHUASHIBIRANDE,DANYOUYUCIQIANXINDAITOUFANGBUDUODEGUOYOUDAXINGHUOCUN“WENDINGQI”ZUOYONG,2YUEFENXINZENGXINDAISHUJUDEJIANGFUBUZHIYUGUODA。

国贸期货   BEIJINGYIJIADAXINGTOUXINGYIWEIBUYUANJUMINGDEYINXINGYEFENXISHIDIAOYANYIFAXIAN,BUFENYINXING2YUEFENQIAN20TIANDEXINDAITOUFANGYICHAOGUOQUNIAN2YUEFENQUANYUESHUJU;BUGUO,ZAIYOUYICHUANGKOUZHIDAO、KONGZHITOUFANGJIEZOU,YIJISHANGYEYINXINGZONGXINGKONGZHISHENPIJIEZOUDEZONGHEZUOYONGXIA,2YUEFENXINZENGXINDAIJIANGHUANBIJIANSHAO,TONGBIBAOCHIWENDINGHUOZHEYOUYIDINGZENGJIA。

  TAHAIYUJI,2YUEFENXINZENGXINDAIGUIMOJIANGZAI1.1WANYI~1.5WANYI,QUANNIANXINDAIZENGZHANGZEWEICHIZAI12WANYI~13WANYI。

国贸期货   YEYOUFENXIRENSHIRENWEI,2YUEFENXINZENGXINDAITONGBIHEHUANBIDOUHUIYOUSUOXIAJIANG。PINGANZHENGQUANYINXINGYEYANJIUTUANDUIJINGDIAOYANYUJI,2YUEFENXINZENGYIBANXINGDAIKUANZAI0.8WANYI~1WANYI。

  JUGAITUANDUIDIAOYAN,DAXINGZAI2YUEFENXINZENGJIBENWEICHIPINGWENLVEJIANG,DAN1YUEFENDAFUFALIDEGUFENXING、ZHENGCEXINGYINXINGDENGZAI2YUEFENYILAIYOUMINGXIANFANGHUANJIXIANG。CHULEPEITAOXIANGMUZIJINTOUFANGYIWAIDESHITIJINGJIXUQIUYIRANWEICHIDIWEI,RENGSHIZHIYUEXINDAIZENGZHANGDEZUIZHONGYAOYUANYIN。

  更加关注广义信贷

  PINGANZHENGQUANYINXINGYEYANJIUTUANDUIBIAOSHI,2YUEFENDEXINZENGDAIKUANXIAXINGFUHEYUQI,YINWEIJIZHONGXIANGMUPEITAOZIJINYIYU1YUEFENTUJITOUFANG,YINXINGQUANNIANJIHUAYEYU2YUEFENHOUZHUBUSHANGBAO。CIWAI,RENMINBIHUILVWENDINGYIJIPIAOJURUBIAOGUIMOMINGXIANXIAJIANGYESHIZHUYIN。

  GAITUANDUIBIAOSHI,2YUEFENXINDAIZENGSUXIAJIANGKEWEI3YUEFENLIUZUEDU,BUHUISHIYINXINGZAIMPAJIDUKAOHESHIZHUOJINJIANZHOU。DUOWEIYINXINGXINDAIRENSHIZAIJIESHOUJIZHECAIFANGSHI,YEYOUSHEJIMPAYINGXIANGXINDAITOUFANGJIEZOUDEYANLUN。

国贸期货   JULEJIE,ZAIMPAZHENGSHISHISHIQIAN,YANGXINGZHUYAOTONGGUOHEYIDAIKUANGUIMO、CUNDAIBIGUANKONGXIAYIXINDAI;DANZAIJINNIANKAISHISHISHIMPAQIEMEIJIDUYIKAOHEHOU,YANGXINGQUXIAODUIHEYIDAIKUANDEKONGZHI,RUOHUACUNDAIBIJIANGUAN,GAIWEIGUANKONGGUANGYIXINDAI(BAOKUOZHAIQUAN、FEIBIAODENGQITAFANGKUANSHOUDUAN)。

国贸期货   WANGJIANRENWEI,1YUEFEN“NUFANG”DEXINDAIJI2YUEFENTONGBILVEZENGDEXINDAIYUJIZENGLIANG,SHIZHENGTIJIANGUANZHIBIAOGAIBIANHOUYINXINGXINGWEIDEXIANGYINGZHUANBIAN。“HENDUOYIQIANBUDEBUYONGFEIBIAOTOUFANGDEZICHAN,KEYINARUXINDAIKEMU,CISHIANZHAOMPADESILU,SHICHANGYINGDANGGENGJIAGUANZHUGUANGYIXINDAI。”WANGJIANCHENG。

国贸期货   WANGJIANBIAOSHI,GUANGYIXINDAIZHONGDEBUTONGPINZHONG,DUIYINGDESHIBUTONGDEZIJINTOUXIANG。PIRUZHONGXIAOQIYESHIHEDAIKUAN、PIAOJUTIEXIAN,DAXINGQIYEZESHIHEZHAIQUAN,DIFANGRONGZIPINGTAIKEHUZESHIHEFEIBIAO。YIQIANXINDAIEDUBEIKONGZHI,YINXINGZHUANWEITOUFANGFEIBIAO、ZHAIQUAN,QISHIQIAQIAYINGXIANGLEZHONGXIAOQIYE、LINGSHOUBUMENDERONGZI,ERZONGRONGLEDAXINGQIYE、DIFANGRONGZIPINGTAIDERONGZI。

  “ZHEIMINGXIANYUGAOCENG‘XINDAIZHICHIZHONGXIAOWEIQIYE’DEZHENGCEYITUXIANGFAN。ZHEIJIUSHINIUQUDEJIANGUANCUOSHIDAOZHIYINXINGDEXINGWEINIUQU,PIANLIZHENGCEYITU。”WANGJIANCHENG,QUXIAOXINDAIGUIMOKONGZHI,ZHIGUANGUANGYIXINDAI,SUIRANZONGLIANGSHANGBUYINGXIANGM2,DANNENGSHIRONGZIJIEGOUGENGWEILINGHUO,YOUZHUYUYINXINGGENGHAODIFUWUSHITIJINGJI。